FORECASTS OF UK 'REPORTED' AIDS/HIV CASES, BASED ON DATA
FROM THE PUBLIC HEALTH LABORATORY SERVICE AT END-JUNE 2003.
 by Edwardhfd@aol.com 

 The following table summarises numerical forecasts of various categories
of AIDS cases based on 
Public Health Laboratory quarterly reports.

FORECASTS OF CUMULATIVE CASES AT END-YEAR:


                    06/03    2005    2010    2015    2020     2025    2030
AIDS CATEGORY
Total UK:           19,656 21.400  24,500  27,000  29,000  30,700  32,100


Homosexual:         12,280  12,800  13,500  14,100  14,500  14,800 15,100 


Heterosexual:        4,857   6,210   9,340  12,700  16,100  19,500 22,800 


Intra.Drug.U:        1,176   1,230   1,320   1,390   1,440   1,480  1,510


Blood/Tissue:          851     862     881     895     905     913    920


Children: *            492     586     773    947   1,110   1,250   1,380 


Total Deaths:       12,666  13,200  14,000  14,500  15,000  15,300 15,600


Scotland:            1,168   1,300   1,500   1,660   1,790   1,900  1,980 


North. Ireland:        106     120     145     165     181     195    206 


West Midlands:         581     669     828     969    1,090   1,200 1,300


Females:             2,993   3,720   5,320   6,950    8,550 10,100 11,500 


Total HIV:          57,692  74,400 116,000 166,000 236,000 292,000 365,000 


AIDS Prevalence:     7,000   8,450  11,500  14,600  17,500 20,300  22,800 


HIV Prevalence:     42,433  58,300  97,900 146,000 200,000 259,000 321,000

   

(HIV figures subject to revision) * Children of HIV mothers. 

 Homosexual includes males who are also Intravenous Drug Users (IDU}
 Intravenous Drug Users are both male and female.
 Blood/Tissue:- People contracting infection by blood transfusion, etc.
 Children are those born to mothers with AIDS/HIV infection.
 Females includes female children
 HIV includes all people diagnosed with AIDS/HIV, including deaths.
                                      
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