FORECASTS OF UK 'REPORTED' AIDS/HIV CASES, BASED ON DATA
FROM THE HEALTH PROTECTION AGENCY AT END-SEPTEMBER 2005.
 by Edwardhfd@aol.com 

 The following table summarises numerical forecasts of various categories
of AIDS cases based on Health Protection Agency quarterly reports.

FORECASTS OF CUMULATIVE CASES AT END-YEAR:


                    09/05    2005    2010    2015    2020     2025    2030
AIDS CATEGORY
Total UK:           21,724 22.000  26,100  29,600  31,600  35,000  37,200


Homosexual:         12,745  12,800  13,600  14,200  14,700  15,000 15,300 


Heterosexual:        6,279   6,450  10,300  14,700  19,400  24,300 29,300 


Intra.Drug.U:        1,231   1,240   1,340   1,400   1,470   1,520  1,560


Blood/Tissue:          870     874     908     933     953     967    980


Children: *            599     630     936   1,270   1,610   1,960   2,290


Total Deaths:       13,282  13,300  14,400  15,100  15,700   16,200 16,600


Scotland:            1,243   1,260   1,410   1,520   1,610   1,710   1,740 


North. Ireland:        113     113     129     141     151     158     164 


West Midlands:         721     736   1,130   1,590    2,090   2,620  3,170


Females:             3,888   4,010   6,390   9,130   12,100  15,200 18,300 


Total HIV:          74,892  76,900 127,000 194,000 276,000 374,000 487,000 


AIDS Prevalence      8,442   8,630  12,300  16,000  19,800  22,800  25,600 


HIV Prevalence      58,295  60,200  106,000 165,000 234,000 312,000 396,000

   

(HIV figures subject to revision) * Children of HIV mothers. 

 Homosexual includes males who are also Intravenous Drug Users (IDU}
 Intravenous Drug Users are both male and female.
 Blood/Tissue:- People contracting infection by blood transfusion, etc.
 Children are those born to mothers with AIDS/HIV infection.
 Females includes female children
 HIV includes all people diagnosed with AIDS/HIV, including deaths.
                                      
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