FORECASTS OF UK 'REPORTED' AIDS/HIV CASES, BASED ON DATA
FROM THE HEALTH PROTECTION AGENCY AT END-DECEMBER 2005.
 by Edwardhfd@aol.com 

 The following table summarises numerical forecasts of various categories
of AIDS cases based on Health Protection Agency quarterly reports.

FORECASTS OF CUMULATIVE CASES AT END-YEAR:


                     2005    2010    2015    2020     2025    2030
AIDS CATEGORY
Total UK:          21.890  26,100  29,500  32,400  34,900  37,000


Homosexual:        12,803  13,600  14,200  14,700  15,100  15,400 


Heterosexual:        6,379  10,200  14,500  19,000  23,700 28,500 


Intra.Drug.U:        1,234   1,330   1,400   1,460   1,500  1,540


Blood/Tissue:          872     901     922     938     950    960


Children: *           602     851  1,080   1,310   1,520   1,710


Total Deaths:      13,346  14,400  15,200  15,800   16,200 16,600


Scotland:           1,254   1,400   1,510   1,590   1,660   1,710 


North. Ireland:       115     135     152     166     177     186 


West Midlands:        727   1,130   1,570    2,060   2,500  3,110


Females:            3,942   6,240   8,780   11,500  14,300 17,100 


Total HIV:         76,765 128,000 195,000 279,000 379,000 493,000 


AIDS Prevalence     8,544  12,200  15,800  19,400  21,900  26,200 


HIV Prevalence     60,000  106,000 165,000 234,000 312,000 395,000

   

(HIV figures subject to revision) * Children of HIV mothers. 

 Homosexual includes males who are also Intravenous Drug Users (IDU}
 Intravenous Drug Users are both male and female.
 Blood/Tissue:- People contracting infection by blood transfusion, etc.
 Children are those born to mothers with AIDS/HIV infection.
 Females includes female children
 HIV includes all people diagnosed with AIDS/HIV, including deaths.
                                      
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