FORECASTS OF UK 'REPORTED' AIDS/HIV CASES, BASED ON DATA
FROM THE PUBLIC HEALTH LABORATORY SERVICE AT END-SEPTEMBER 2001.
 by Edwardhfd@aol.com 

 The following table summarises numerical forecasts of various categories
of AIDS cases based on 

Health Protection Agency Tables.

FORECASTS OF CUMULATIVE CASES AT END-YEAR:


                    12/01    2005    2010    2015    2020     2025    2030
AIDS CATEGORY
Total UK:           18,332 20,920  23,480  25,480  27,100  28,420  29,530


Homosexual:         12,000  12,900  13,800  14,500  15,000  15,400  15,800   


Heterosexual:        3,980   5,540   7,490   9,340   11,100  12.640  14,900 


Intra.Drug.U:        1,130   1,240   1,340   1,410   1,470   1,520   1,560

Blood/Tissue:          842     887     927     956     979     996   1,011 


Children: *            432     606     827   1,040   1,240   1,430   1,610  


Total Deaths:       12,300  13,200  14,100  14,800  15,200  15,600  16,000


Scotland:            1,070   1,210   1,340   1,430   1,500   1,490   1,530  


Northern Ireland        97     121     149     171     190     206     219     


West Midlands:         540     727     965   1,190    1,410   1,610   1,800


Females:             2,520   3,420   4,520   5,540    6,470   7,330   8,100   


Total HIV:          48,000  64,700  87,400 111,000 136,000 160,000 184,000 


(HIV figures subject to revision) * Children of HIV mothers unaltered, data unavailable. 

 Homosexual includes males who are also Intravenous Drug Users (IDU}
 Intravenous Drug Users are both male and female.
 Blood/Tissue refers to people contracting infection by blood transfusion, etc.
 Children are those born to mothers with AIDS/HIV infection.
 Females includes female children
 HIV includes all people diagnosed with AIDS/HIV, including deaths.
                                     ( 7 ) 

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