FORECASTS OF UK 'REPORTED' AIDS/HIV CASES, BASED ON DATA
FROM THE PUBLIC HEALTH LABORATORY SERVICE AT END-DECEMBER 2001.
 by Edwardhfd@aol.com 

 The following table summarises numerical forecasts of various categories
of AIDS cases based on 
Public Health Laboratory quarterly reports.

FORECASTS OF CUMULATIVE CASES AT END-YEAR:


                    12/01    2005    2010    2015    2020     2025    2030
AIDS CATEGORY
Total UK:           18,327 20,930  23,500  25,520  27,150  28,480  29,600


Homosexual:         11,926  12,900  13,700  14,300  14,800  15,200  15,500   


Heterosexual:        3,998   5,590   7,590   9,520   11,300  13.000  14,500 


Intra.Drug.U:        1,134   1,260   1,370   1,460   1,540   1,580   1,620



Blood/Tissue:          840     886     926     956     978     996   1,010 


Children: *            429     611     841   1,070   1,280   1,480   1,670  


Total Deaths:       12,287  13,200  14,100  14,700  15,200  15,600  15,900


Scotland:            1,073   1,230   1,370   1,480   1,560   1,620   1,680  



North. Ireland:         98     129     164     196     223     246     267     


West Midlands:         533     717     933   1,130    1,310   1,480   1,620


Females:             2,522   3,440   4,570   5,630    6,600   7,490   8,300   


Total HIV:           48,158  65,400  89,000 114,000 140,000 166,000 192,000 


(HIV figures subject to revision) * Children of HIV mothers. 

 Homosexual includes males who are also Intravenous Drug Users (IDU}
 Intravenous Drug Users are both male and female.
 Blood/Tissue:- People contracting infection by blood transfusion, etc.
 Children are those born to mothers with AIDS/HIV infection.
 Females includes female children
 HIV includes all people diagnosed with AIDS/HIV, including deaths.
                                     ( 8 ) 
ANNUAL CUMULATIVE FORECASTS

ANNUAL INCIDENCE FORECASTS

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