CONTENTS 
 PAGE				  SUBJECT

   1	   CONTENTS.

   2 & 3   INTRODUCTION.

   4       SUMMARY of Cases end-1995 to end-1999: Forecast Incidence to 2030.

   5       DATA.   The PHLS Data used in the production of this report.

   6       METHOD, written description.   The 'Collier' Growth Curve.

   7       TYPICAL output from AIDSFIX program with the method explained.

   8       ACCURACY, Table showing the accuracies of forecasts of 
                reported cases at the ends of 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998 and 1999
 
   9       GRAPHS of forecasts  prior to 12/90; from  the table on Page 8.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

   9S	   Summary of Forecasts to 2030

  10       FORECASTS. Numerical forecasts for reported cases UK1, Homo. etc.

  11       MORE numerical forecasts of Deaths, Scotland, Northern Ireland, etc.

  12       GRAPH showing how the UK1 AIDS forecasts have changed since 12/96.    

  13       FORECASTS. Graphical forecasts of UK1. SUM, AfD  for the UK.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           
  
  14       GRAPHICAL forecasts of Homosexual, Heterosexual, Female cases, etc.

  15       GRAPHICAL forecasts for Scotland, Northern Ireland and West Midlands. 

  16       GRAPH showing how forecasts of overall incidence of  UK AIDS have 
                changed since 12/96.

  17       FORECASTS OF INCIDENCE; Numerical values for UK1, Homo. etc.
		and Forecast Reported incidence to the end of 2012.	

  18       NUMERICAL forecasts of INCIDENCE for Deaths,Scotland, HIV, etc.

  19       GRAPH of incidence of  UK1 and SUM Reported and Forecast AIDS

  20       GRAPHS of Forecast INCIDENCE for Heterosexuals, Homosexuals, etc.

  21       GRAPHS of Forecast PREVALENCE for Total UK AIDS; two methods.	

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