INTRODUCTION
1) GENERAL
	Firstly, this report provides the usual forecast projections of the likely 
growth of HIV/AIDS in the UK, but concentrates on the possible likely growth of HIV 
cases in the UK within the foreseeable future until the end of year 2015.
	Secondly, it is time that someone in authority took an interest in the method 
and computer program used by the author. Although the method is fully described in web 
site www.AIDSCJDUK.info  it requires a considerable effort to produce an easily used 
program from it. The author already has a refined program for the Sinclair Spectrum 
computer and has partly rewritten it for a PC. He has also, through the years, built 
up an extensive library of AIDS data and forecasts since 1987. He is now over 80 years 
old, so cannot guarantee to continue until 2015 or beyond. The program and information 
can be made available if someone can be given the task of perfecting the program for a 
PC and continuing the forecast work.
	The AIDSFIX method has proved itself very accurate in forecasting AIDS and has 
also provided the DOH and the CJD Surveillance Unit in Edinburgh with useful projections 
for variant CJD. It could be extremely useful in providing early projections if new 
epidemics such as SARS, drug resistant TB, Avian influenza or  Ebola virus  should occur 
in the UK.
  
2) MOST IMPORTANT FINDING
Until the end of 1999 the projections for cumulative cases of HIV in the UK were steady
at around 53,000 by end-2005, 67,000 by end 2020, 80,000 by end-2015 and 95,000 by end-2020. 
Since then, quarter by quarter, the projections increased until the end of 2003. The 
straightforward projections, at the end of 2004, indicate 76,300 UK HIV cases by end-2005, 
123,000 by end-2010, 184,000 by end-2015 and 257,000 by end-2020. ( see Figures  2 & 3 )
 	The graph of this growth is shown on Figure  3.  Using the AIDSFIX program, it has 
been extended to show the numbers of cases that could be in the UK at the given dates if 
the projections in Figures 4 & 5 are reached. However, the very pessimistic projections of 
Report No. 13 did not come to pass and it looks as though the data have stabilised. 
Growth is mainly in the heterosexual population now and, if it penetrates deeply among 
careless promiscuous young people, large increases in the numbers of heterosexual cases of 
HIV could be expected.  It happened in Africa and could happen in the UK.  Data on HIV cases 
from Africa have been included in this report
	Clearly the whole situation needs to be kept under close scrutiny as large numbers of 
HIV cases needing treatment could have devastating effects on NHS finances.  
Figure 4 shows these projections on a quarterly basis from 03/05 so that quarterly forecasts 
during 2005 on Web Site www.AIDSCJDUK.info, can be directly compared with the projections. 
	In the 13th. report a similar range of predictions was given: fortunately, they did not 
come to pass. e.g. :-
	HIV Cases		03/04		 06/04	        09/04	      12/04
2005  	Predicted at end-2003: 	78.200		79,700	        81,100	       82,500
	Quarterly forecasts:    76,000          76,100		76,100	       76,300
2015	Predicted end-2003:    196,000	       208,000	       220,000	      289,000
	Quarterly forecasts:   181,000	       182,000	       182,000	      182,000

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