NEXTThis 15th. Annual Report differs greatly from all the previous reports. It contains sixteen graphs covering all the main categories of UK AIDS/HIV for which projections are made each quarter, when new data become available from the Health Protection Agency.
Most of the graphs show the results of 11 separate half-yearly forecasts made between the end of December 2000 and the end of December 2005. Curves are given for the ends of 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020. Thus it can be seen how accurately the extrapolation program was able to estimate the HPA cumulative totals at the end of 2005. Purists would probably say that bar charts should be used for such discontinuous data, but I have deliberately used line charts as they are more readily assimilated.
It should be noted that the author's projections are intended only to seek to predict the eventual cumulative numbers that will appear in HPA Quarterly Surveillance Reports. No effort is made to allow for under-reporting or for calculation of incidence per 100.0000 people. A few brief comments are offered, namely:- (A) Heterosexual, West Midlands and Females UK AIDS cases show slowly increasing incidence through the years. All the other AIDS categories show steady or slowly decreasing incidence. (B) UK HIV cases show slowly increasing incidence at present. (C) The last graph shows the projected growth of total UK HIV cases and a curve of cases originating in Africa for comparison. It will be seen that if the current state of affairs relating to HIV cases coming into the UK from Africa continues, then one could expect those cases to become a greater proportion of the total as years go by. Moreover, it would appear that the total prevalence of HIV could become so great that the provision of drug therapy could make great demands on the finances of the Health Service.