The forecasts on this part of the web site have been made by a private individual who had the good fortune in 1987 to devise an extrapolation method that, through the years, has worked extremely well in forecasting the progress of AIDS/HIV in the UK. The Extrapolation Method is described in another section of this site. In 1996 the author offered to try the extrapolation method on data on variant CJD. Since then, from time to time, the National CJD Surveillance Unit (NCJDSU) in Edinburgh has kindly provided up-to-date information on UK variant CJD and forecasts have been made. The forecasts, which are included in this web site, are entirely the responsibility of the author and are not endorsed by either the Ministry of Health or the National Surveillance Unit.

The data on which the forecasts are based have been derived directly from the NCJDSU records. Two forecasts are made, A) of vCJD Onsets, and B) of vCJD Deaths.

When variant CJD was recognised as a human form of bovine BSE, it was thought that a very large widespread epidemic was likely in the UK due to the large number of people who could have eaten infected meat. Fortunately, to date, there has been no sign of such an epidemic and all my forecasts have shown this. However, as the incubation period can be a number of years, it is still not impossible that a considerable number of cases could arise in future. The extrapolation method is very sensitive to small changes of input data so future projections should provide an early warning if such an eventuality should arise

vCJD DATA

First Forecasts end-December 1996

Forecasts end-December 1998

Forecasts end-December 2000

Forecasts end-December 2001

Forecasts end-December 2002

Forecasts end-June 2003

Forecasts end-March 2004

Forecasts at end-June 2004

Forecasts at end-September 2004

Forecasts at end-December 2004

Forecasts at end-June 2005

Forecasts at end-December 2005

Forecasts at end-June 2006

Forecasts at end-December 2006

Forecasts at end-June 2007

Forecasts at end-March 2008

GRAPHS OF LATEST FORECAST & SOME EARLIER FORECASTS

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